Bosnia and Herzegovina would have won Eurovision under First-Past-The-Post

It would have been a very quick round of voting, though, and as a result would have saved many millions of hours of people’s lives which they lost watching idiots generating false tension before revealing their oh-so-important votes.

Anyway, it’s an artificial analysis as the Eurovision voting wouldn’t go the way it does if voting was really FPTP but here’s the results (where a 12pt vote counts as the only vote each country can cast for a song):

5 votes – Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 votes – Italy
3 votes – Azerbaijan, Denmark, Georgia, Ireland, Ukraine
2 votes – France, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden
1 vote – Austria, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Moldova, UK
0 votes – Estonia, Germany, Russia, Serbia, Switzerland

So B&H would win, thanks to 1st choices from neighbours Serbia, close friends Slovenia and FYR Macedonia, and Austria + Switzerland.

Alternatively, we can look at applying the recently rejected system of Alternative Vote where low scoring countries are eliminated from the competition to have their votes redistributed. Where countries have the same number of votes, the order of elimination is based on the final points scored in the competition

Pass 1 – 5 countries with zero votes are removed.

Pass 2 – Hungary’s vote goes to Ireland, Finland’s to Sweden, Iceland’s to Sweden, Austria’s to Greece (which saves Greece from this round of elimination), Moldova’s to Azerbaijan, UK’s to Greece. New positions as follows:

5 votes – Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 votes – Italy, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Sweden
3 votes – Denmark, Georgia, Ukraine, Greece,
2 votes – France, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia, Spain

Pass 3 – France’s two votes goes to Romania+Italy (which saves Romania), Lithuania’s to Ukraine+Italy, Slovenia’s both to Azerbaijan, Spain’s to Sweden+Italy. New positions as follows:

7 votes – Italy
6 votes – Azerbaijan
5 votes – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden
4 votes – Ireland, Ukraine
3 votes – Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Romania

Pass 4 – Denmark’s three votes go to Azerbaijan+Italy+Sweden, Georgia’s to Azerbaijan+Italy+Ukraine, Greece’s to Sweden+Ukraine+Ireland, Romania’s to Ukraine+Azerbaijan+Ireland. New positions as follows:

9 votes – Azerbaijan, Italy
8 votes –
7 votes – Sweden, Ukraine
6 votes – Ireland
5 votes – Bosnia and Herzegovina

Pass 5 – B&H have managed to pick up no votes from the 19 eliminated countries so far and are themselves eliminated. New positions as follows:

10 votes – Italy, Azerbaijan, Ukraine
7 votes – Sweden
6 votes – Ireland

Pass 6 – Ireland are removed and the new positions as follows:

13 votes – Italy
11 votes – Azerbaijan
10 votes – Ukraine
9 votes – Sweden

Pass 7 – Sweden are removed and five votes go to Azerbaijan with only one to Italy (two are discarded as no valid choices left). Still no country has over 50% of the available votes. New positions as follows:

17 votes – Azerbaijan
14 votes – Italy
10 votes – Ukraine

Pass 8 (the final one) – Ukraine’s votes that weren’t discarded go mainly to Italy but not enough to prevent the narrowest of victories for Azerbaijan:

20 votes – Azerbaijan
19 votes – Italy

Almost a hung Eurovision – a result many people were hoping for.

Thanks to the official Eurovision website for the data.

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